Contrarian betting is a sound betting strategy in online sportsbook betting because the odds are usually better. Oddsmakers have one purpose in mind and that is to make a profit. The majority of the bettors are public bettors. As such oddsmakers always set the lines so that it benefits them. In this piece, we look at shaded lines.
Why Sportsbooks Shade Lines?
Oddsmakers are masters when it comes to influencing bets. They know that the public always bets on the home team, and on the favorites. Therefore, they’ll exploit the public’s bias by shading their lines. Shading means when they set the lines further towards the popular side. It forces public bettors to factor in more risk and to bet on lines that inflated.
The sportsbooks know that baseball teams such as the Yankees always receive tons of bets. They won’t open the lines at -150, but they’ll shade them to -170. See the difference? The problem is it doesn’t affect the public. And, herein lies the problem with shaded lines. No matter what, the public will still bet on the popular teams, and they’ll get a bad number.
Why Contrarian Betting Is Important
Most online sportsbook bettors bet on the Cubs because they’re the public darling. The Cubs have a decent win-loss record of 103-58. Sportsbooks will shade the price on bets of $100. Big mistake, because if a bettor bets on every single game the Cubs play; he’ll only make a small profit.
If you want to be a successful sportsbook bettors you must go against the flow sometimes. Now, what do we mean by that? Well, for starters you can start betting on the unpopular side. In other words, you become a contrarian bettor. Shaded lines hurt public bettors because they always favor the home team. However, sportsbooks don’t just shade the favorite team’s lines, but also the opposing team’s line. Crazy we know!
An unpopular team might open at +145, and not at +135. So, if you bet on the opposing team, sportsbooks inflate the line by 10 cents. When it comes to spread sports like basketball and football, keep your eye on shaded lines. For a simple reason, a half a point can turn things upside down.
Bet On The Underdog
Also, when you have the favorite team up against a road team that lost all its games. The sportsbooks know that the public will pound the home team favorite against the unpopular team.
Once sportsbooks online consult their power ratings and run their lines. They’ll set the spread at 14 points in favor of the favorite. But, here’s the snag. Sportsbooks know that the public will bet on the favorite no matter what. They’ll shade the favorite from -14 to -14.5.
Therefore, the contrarian bettors will receive better odds of a free half point. They don’t just bet on the +14 anymore but on the +14.5. Should the favorite win by 14 points, contrarian bettors will still win thanks to the +14.5 shaded line. As you can see contrarian bettors love to zig when the public zags. In online sportsbook betting always check the shaded lines of road teams and underdogs. Simply because their value is lower than what it should be.
Contrarian Shaded Lines
If you want to bet against the public you must know where the public’s at. The public won’t always bet on the favorite, or over. There’s always the possibility that the public could go for a trendy underdog. Or, they can bet on the under because both teams defend well.
If you want to be a successful contrarian bettor, never place your bets on your gut feeling. How does one find out more about the public’s perception? The first thing you must do is to have a look at the public’s betting trends. How many bets each team receives, and which team the public sides with.
In return, this will help you to determine the public’s bias. When a team receives less than 50 percent of the bets it’s contrarian. If it’s 49 percent, it means that the public is in two minds. If the public bets heavily on one team it’s always in your best interest to bet against it.
A team that receives 35 percent of the bets. Has much more contrarian value than a team that receives 45 percent. The assumption we can make here is the less support a team receives from the public; the more contrarian value it offers. If you really want to get the most out of your shaded lines.
Bet on teams that receive less than 35 percent of the public’s bets. On the whole, it’s a smart bet not only because it’s undervalued. But, you can score a few bucks because the sportsbook positively shades the line.
Shaded Lines Lopsided Action
Oddsmakers and sportsbooks online dig heavily lopsided betting. If the betting on both sides is equal, sportsbooks will take it with a pinch of salt. Because they know the juice will cover them. It doesn’t matter which team wins, they’ll still make money.
Now, if a game is heavily lopsided with the public. It becomes a headache for the sportsbooks because they can lose plenty of money. If the Steelers are the 10-point favorites against the Buccaneers and carry 80 percent of the spread bets.
The sportsbooks must cover Pittsburg in one way or another. If the Steelers thump them by 12 points or more. Sportsbooks will have to pay huge sums of cash to the public bettors who bet on Pittsburg. Another valuable tip we can give you. Take advantage of public bias, and always join the house because the house always wins over the long run.