The first rule about online sportsbook betting is to know what you’re up against before you bet. There’s no other way to describe it but betting on online sports is hard!
Whether you spin slots for real money or play a casino game, you are at the mercy of luck. The same hard and fast rule applies to roulette. You can pick black, red, or just about any number. Yet, the ball spinning around on the Roulette wheel determines the outcome. Long story short, luck can make or break you. This article explores randomness in online sportsbook betting.
Luck And Online Sports Betting
Unlike gambling at casinos online USA, betting on sports amplifies luck any further. If you bet on two NBA teams, you’re betting on one team to be the winner. Not so? The bottom line, the human element is always prevalent in online sports betting. When you bet on team sports such as the NBA. You rely on that the team will function as a unit to ensure victory. If the team wins you make money, if not, you lose.
Furthermore, a team’s performance relies heavily on its star players and on the coaching it receives. What if a team loses because something distracted its star players? The night before the game did they have a good night’s rest? Do they play with injuries? These are just some of the variables that can make or break your bet.
Take baseball for instance. A baseball can be off the mark by a quarter of an inch. A hockey puck can ricochet of many players, and land in the net. Can you see why it’s so exciting to bet on sports? Practically anything goes, and anything can happen, of course. Therefore, you can still lose a bet doing hours of research. Moreover, you can win by a simple coin toss when you bet blindly on a team.
There’s no denying that when it comes to betting on sports, bettors are a superstitious bunch. We’ll even go so far by saying that it’s easier to herd a bunch of cats than bettors. Some players believe if they sit on their favorite chair whilst watching a televised NFL game. Their team will win. Or, the last time your team won you downed a can of Coke. As a result, you won your bet. Therefore, before you place your bets, you’ll drink a can of Coke. Sounds crazy, nope many bettors swear by it.
Conversely, if your NFL team lost because you wore a Nike cap, you’ll never wear that cap again. So, there’s absolutely no evidence that superstitions exist. One thing stands out like a pole above water; bettors believe in them.
What Is A Mush?
One thing that’s worse than any form of superstition and that’s when someone calls you a mush. A mush is a person that creates bad luck for others, or so to speak. Let’s say your friends invited you to an NBA game and the Lakers lost. Prior to that the Lakers always won when they went without you. Whenever you’re around bad things happen. That’s just the short version of it at least.
Anyhow, where does the term ‘Mush’ come from. It comes from the 1993 Hollywood film, A Bronx Tale with Robert De Nero in the lead. De Nero’s character in the film coined the phrase when he said: “Eddie Mush was a degenerate gambler. More importantly, he said that everything he touched turned to mush.”
The House Wins Always
Online casinos will go bankrupt if betting was easy. Everybody would quit their jobs and become professional gamblers. Alas, there’s a reason why Las Vegas is one of the world’s foremost gambling metropolises. It rakes in hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue every year. There’s an old saying that if you can spot the sucker at the poker table within a few minutes. Guess what? Then you are that sucker. Yeah, it sucks man, but that’s the harsh reality.
The UNLV Center for Gambling research points out. Since 1984 people bet more than $81 billion on sports in Nevada. Long story short, $3.9 billion went Nevada’s way. The reason why Nevada brings the money home is that it holds an edge over bettors.
Sportsbooks know how to capitalize on luck, randomness, and superstition. But, we have a more educated term for this: ‘The House Edge‘. Basically, it’s the profit the house will make on every game over the long haul. We can say with absolute certainty, bettors already handicap themselves before they place their first bet.
Greatest Upset In The History of Boxing
Mike Tyson squared off against Buster Douglas in Tokyo in 1990. The odds were heavily in Tyson’s favor because he went into the fight with a 37-0 victory. Which included 33 knockouts. Douglas entered the fight as the resounding underdog.
Yet, in the tenth round, Douglas knocked out Tyson with a serious of barrages to the body and head. Suffice to say, he dropped faster than a lead anvil in a pool. Many still consider it the greatest upset in boxing history. What’s the moral of the story here? When it comes to sportsbook betting, always expect the unexpected. Whatever you do, never write off the underdog!
It’s All In The Juice Baby
Because the house always wins in sports betting. Bettors believe that online sportsbooks have a magic crystal ball of sorts. More often than not when you flick on the telly, the score is 20-18 in the 4th quarter. You have a look at the spread and see that it was -2. Hence the reason casual bettors always say, “Vegas Knew!”.
We can tell you now, and we’ll tell you for free. It’s not because online sportsbooks are smarter than Joe or Sally bettor. Make no mistake, the hard-to-beat lines do have an impact. When you bet on the moneyline your chances of winning is 50 percent. For the simple reason, there will be a winning and a losing team. Alternatively, if you bet on the spread, you can push.
Now, sportsbooks always coin it is because they charge a tax of 10 percent on every single bet. Better known as the Juice! The juice allows them to make huge profits because it gives them the edge. The standard juice in online sports betting is 110
If you bet 1-1 on your two picks, you lose money due to the tax associated with both bets. On the whole, you must risk $110 to win $100 on the two teams. If your team wins, not only will you pocket the $100, but your initial bet of $100 as well. However, should your team lose, you’ll part ways with $110. What must you do for your bets to break even? If the standard -110 juice, you must win more than 52.38 percent of your bets.
What Is The Z-Score?
Ever heard about the z-score in online sports betting? In statistics, statisticians use it to calculate the relationship between data points compared to the average. You can apply it to online sportsbook betting too. For example, if the average bettor makes 1,000 picks at the standard -110 juice. And, hits 50 percent of his plays.
His z-score will be zero. If we apply the z-score, the 50 percent bettor has a 1/44 chance, or 53.2 percent of winning his plays. Therefore, his z-score will be zero. What are the chances for a 50 percent bettor to hit 70 percent of his plays? According to the z-score, it’s one in a trillion, there impossible. You’re better off playing the lottery if you have no edge.
Sports Betting Ain’t Easy
To circle back what we said in our opening paragraph, “it’s hard to bet on sports”. Well, if sportsbook online sports betting was easy, everybody would be doing it. The pipeline dream of every bettor is to become a millionaire instantly. Unfortunately, there’s no such thing as a free lunch in life. Whatever, you do you gotta earn them stripes.
You’ll have good days, not so good days and downright terrible days. When you’re cold, you’re not as bad as you think. And, when you’re hot you might suck. Pay special attention to the magic 52.38 percent number. Be patient and disciplined. But, above all the most successful sports bettors, or the Sharps, know how to grind.
Get Rid Of The Bias
We’ve said it many times before, never follow the public’s bias. If you do, you’re looking for trouble. Before you place your bets, do your research and map out a bankroll. Also, don’t let the media’s hype about a specific team cloud your judgment.
You’re putting yourself behind the eight ball if you place a bet on a team due to bias. Bill Belichick, the head coach of the New England Patriots; tells his players to ignore the noise before a match. Remember those words of wisdom when you place your bets.
Another important thing, don’t bet on a team just because it has plenty of star players. You can have an NBA team with the best players and they don’t gel; they’ll lose most of their matches.