NFL betting is one of the most popular sports betting disciplines in USA online sportsbooks. And it’s no wonder the NFL is a huge league, followed by tens of millions of fans across the world.
The odds and lines are always sharp. In other words, it’s hard to make a profit and you need to understand everything perfectly. While you’re at it you can check out our sweetheart teaser betting strategy.
Spread betting and key numbers are two crucial components. We’ll give you all the info we can in this article. We’ll look at what spreads are. What are the key numbers. How do they affect betting? And, if you should ever consider buying points.
Spread Betting
Spread betting is betting on a handicap line on one of the teams. If you’re betting on the favorite, you’ll be betting on a minus spread. Here, you’ll be betting on the team to win by the least number of points.
If you’re betting on the underdog, you’ll be betting on a plus spread. Instead, you’ll be betting on the team to not lose by the number of points given.
Let’s sum this up with an example. Suppose the Chiefs are playing the Giants and the line is 7.5 points in the Chiefs’ favor. If you’re betting on the -7.5 line, you want the Chiefs to win by 8 or more points. If you’re betting on the +7.5 line, you want the Giants to lose by 7 points at most instead.
Key Numbers in NFL Betting
The key scoring plays that happen most often in the NFL are field goals and converted touchdowns. These are worth 3 and 7 points, respectively.
Based on this, these two numbers are also the key numbers in NFL betting. That’s because the gaps determine most games that are multiples of these two numbers. Teams often win by a field goal, a touchdown, or by several of those combinations.
So how does this transfer to live betting? You need to be aware of these key numbers, especially when betting on spread or total. The key numbers affect them, let’s give you some examples.
What Are The Odds?
Whenever a line is something like -6.5. You need to be aware that this is a difference by a touchdown or by three field goals. Move it down by just one point to -5.5. This is easier to accomplish since two field goals are now a winning advantage.
When it comes to totals, the situation is only a bit more tricky. Again, take note of how many touchdowns and field goals teams will have to score. Moreover, touchdowns are more prevalent.
When betting overs on a 42.5 line. For example, make sure that you know that 6 touchdowns alone won’t be enough. They would be in a case of 41.5 points, however!
This goes even further in 0.5 points differences. If you like a team at a -7 line, make sure to bet as soon as possible. If more bettors like the line and bet it, chances are that it will soon move to -7.5. That’s not where you want to be at all.
A touchdown difference, a very common occurrence will lead to a push instead of a win! Over time, these minute differences can make a huge difference to your bankroll!
Line Moves
Once a match is over, US sports books determine the lines for the upcoming matches. They are good at it by now, so even their early lines are quite accurate. Almost all of them will change as the week progresses.
Depending on how bettors bet one of the sides in a match; the spread can move in one of two directions. Either the favorite can become an even bigger favorite or the other way around. Experienced NFL bettors always look at the opening lines and adjust their bets accordingly.
Opening lines also give experienced bettors a possibility to play for middles or straight arbitrage bets. If the odds move a lot in the direction they predicted. They can simply watch the game with a profit guaranteed. Or at least with no loss and a chance to win.
Buying Points
The top sportsbooks online also allow bettors to buy or sell points. In other words, you can bet on adjusted lines that differ from the main spread, with adjusted odds.
It’s a fancy way to say that you have more options to choose from. You can have a bigger gap on an underdog, at a lower price, for example. Or you can bet on the favorite winning by an even bigger margin than expected, at higher odds.
Betting on adjusted lines is mainly for advanced bettors, as it’s where the key numbers come into play again. Not all adjusted lines are equal, you see. The difference between a -13.5 line and a -14.5 line might look like a single point while it’s huge.
In most situations, it means that the team has to score on one more play. The difference between a -3.5 line and a -4.5 line, on the other hand, is rather marginal in comparison. If a team wins by a full touchdown, it will cover both lines comfortably. If it wins by a field goal, on the other hand, it won’t clear either one.
Final Word
NFL betting might seem tricky at first. They are all logical and stem from how the game turns out. Key scoring plays are worth 3 and 7 points.
No wonder that they are the key numbers in betting. Keep that in mind when you next place an NFL bet at your sportsbook USA online.
Avoiding mistakes isn’t hard at all, you just have to be aware of the main concepts. Now, you can even buy and sell points with confidence!