NFL Betting: Is Home-Field Advantage Overrated?

nfl betting

Live bettors love to bet on NFL teams especially if the team plays at home. When the NFL team has a local game the stadium fills to a capacity of up to 80,000 people. You have die-hard NFL fans trying to edge their home team over the line. Make no mistake home-field advantage does exist in NFL betting. Question is, does home-field advantage give the NFL team the edge when it plays at home? Let’s find out.

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NFL Home-Field Advantage Is Real

When the local NFL team is on the offensive. The crowd will make less noise so that the quarterback can hear the play call from the offensive coordinator. The opposite occurs when the opposing NFL team is on the offensive. The crowd goes nuts so that the opposing NFL team’s quarterback can’t communicate with his offensive teammates. The bottom line is a home-field advantage is as real as Kentucky fried chicken; because the crowd can have an impact on the road team’s performance.

When online sportsbooks determine the line, they factor home-field advantage in. So much so, oddsmakers give 3 points for home-field advantage. To best illustrate our point. Let’s look at when the Broncos play the Patriots. In terms of strength, both NFL teams are similar, not so? Therefore, if they play in a neutral stadium the sportsbooks online will open the spread at 0. Now, it’s a different story when they play the NFL match in Denver since the Broncos is the home team. The same scenario applies when the patriots play in New England.

NFL Betting Home-Field Advantage Tips

Although the home-field advantage is real, the public tends to overvalue it. Besides, online sportsbooks already value the home-field advantage into the line. Live NFL bettors usually sit with overpriced odds the sportsbooks already shaded. So, if you are still new at NFL bear this in mind next time you place your bets.

When an NFL team plays at home it usually wins 57 percent of its games. But, when it comes to covering the spread, it’s a different story. The reason being it drops right down to 49 percent. That’s quite a drop don’t you think? We put this down to online sportsbooks that charge bettors juice. And, the home team’s losing record – home teams lost 151.87 units. To break it down for you. Let’s say you wagered on average $100 on the home team since 2003, you would have lost close to $20,000. As you can see when it comes to home-field advantage it’s important to look at the stats.

Bettors tend to overvalue the home team or to a degree at least. In the same breath, we can say that the road team us undervalued. Live bettors usually side with the home-team because they’ll never win in ‘hostile territory’. The smart bettor knows this and they capitalize on this bias. Don’t forget that road teams also enjoy shaded numbers. Road teams usually go 51 percent against the NFL spread. In hindsight, they don’t look like much but they’re way better than the home team’ss.

On average the road team loses around 10 unites compared to home teams that lose 152 units. It doesn’t mean that bettors should drop home-field advantage altogether.

Final Word

Make no mistake home-field advantage in NFL betting can give the local team an edge. But there is also more to it than what meets the eye. The savvy online sportsbook bettor knows this. Sometimes the home team is up against a team that’s so much stronger than it. While it does have a slight edge thanks to the crowd it’s best not to make an emotional bet. When it comes to NFL betting, always bet with your mind and not your heart.