If you want to be a successful online sportsbook bettor; never bet like a fan. When we started betting on the NFL at sportsbooks we made that rookie mistake. When you bet like a fan you’re affiliation to a team is emotional. Herein lies your biggest mistake. The main goal of online sports betting is to make money. Do you agree?
Just because a team has more star players or a charismatic coach. It doesn’t mean you should bet on it. Our advice to you is to bet with your mind and not your heart.
What Are Good Bettors?
What distinguishes a novice bettor from a professional online sportsbook bettor? Professional bettors follow a systematic approach. In other words, they study the data, and they look at matchups. They let the numbers speak for themself if you will. They tend to bet on the teams, or players. Moreover, a novice bettor completely disregards the numbers. Big mistake! Check out our best Bitcoin sportsbooks. Just for pitching they give you a BTC bonus on your first deposit!
Betting Like A Fan Is Meh
When you bet on your favorite sports team don’t disregard value. If you support the Bears, you bet on the Bears as 7-point favorites to win against the Packers. You disregard the data that suggests that the Packers is the smart pick. Before you place your bets. Ask yourself the following. Did the Bears score a win in their previous outing? Did one of their offensive lineman suffer an injury? It can go on and on, but you get what we imply.
Maybe the underdogs inside the division’s track record are better than the underdogs outside the division. The smart bettor bets on the opposing team due to the better odds. The billionaire George Soros said that the bias people have can move the market in a specific direction. The mistake sports betting fans make is that they disregard valuable data.
Ignore The Hype
If you are new at online sportsbook NFL betting, ignore the hype! It’s noise the media uses to manipulate public perception. If there’s an upcoming NFL match, ESPN will hype up their favorite team every day.
They keep on showing highlights how the hyped-up team crushed their opponents with 3 touchdowns. The anchor of ESPN parrots how the favorite will crush the team on Saturday. Then they switch to SportsCenter. A panel of so-called NFL experts blows the win out of proportion even further.
A smart live bettor does research to see if the hype is worth it. The takeaway we can give you here; never overreact to the headlines. Abide by the 99/1 rule. That is, only listen to 1 percent of the sports news.
Watch Out For Shaded Numbers
If you watch ESPN pump the tyres of a specific NFL team all week long. Take it with a pinch of salt because tens of thousands of bettors watch it too. Chances are good that ESPN already made up their minds for them. Sportsbooks know this. They know where the public’s sentiment lays. As a result, sportsbooks shade their lines based on it.
What does shading lines mean? Sportsbooks move the odds even further in the direction of the side ESPN hypes up. They force novice bettors to take bad number points higher than the true opener. Note, professional bettors, don’t always cause the line to move. A line movement occurs due to the public overreacting to media bias.
Study Opening Lines
If you want to avoid the media hype; cover up the name of the teams, and bet on the smart play. Look at the team from an unbiased point of view. You must study the opening line, how the line moves, and head-to-head matchups. You’ll see that it’s better to back the Saints at -7.5 than Detroit at +7.5. When the Saints play in the Superdome they are a force in no uncertain terms. Trust your own data. And, never listen to some talking head in a borrowed suit.
You can take advantage of the public’s perception. The last thing you want is a line sportsbooks inflat artficially because they shade the odds. You can bet on teams that have a losing record and against teams with a winning record. Or, on teams who missed the playoffs the previous season.
You can even bet against teams who did not make the playoffs. You can also bet on teams who have a lot of injuries. As you can see there are many ways to bet. Always buy low and sell high. It means you bet against top teams and bet on bad teams. Initially, it sounds off, but it makes sense sometimes.
Novice bettors tend to bet on the team in week 1 that did not make the playoffs the previous year. All we can say it’s not a smart move, and here’s why. Stats point out that teams who missed the playoffs have 135-118 against the spread.
So, technically speaking their odds of winning is 52-35 ATS (59.8%) in the first week. Another point to ponder over. Bet on the team that just comes off the blowout. Sportsbook bettors often fall victim to information that looks good to them. It’s a case of tell me what I want to hear. Instead, of what I need to hear.
If you want to be good at online sports betting don’t think, or bet like a fan. Don’t let the media hype influence your bets, and approach sports betting from like you would running a business.