Basketball is the second most popular sport in the United States. Therefore, it’s logical to take a closer look at it and how you can bet on the NBA. Just so you know the most popular sports in America is the NFL. Since 1992, the UNLV, Center for Gaming Research states that Nevada raked in more than $20 billion in basketball betting. Which is pretty darn impressive to say the least.
Because basketball is a high-scoring sport, sportsbooks online use the spread and the total. The NBA plays an eighty-two game schedule which means that the NBA hosts 5 to 8 games every night. Therefore, professional and casual bettors have plenty of betting opportunities. Betting on the NBA has its own problems too. Since it rakes in the second most bets on any sport in the United States; online sportsbooks often inflate lines and overvalue bets.
How To Make Money Betting On The NBA?
Home-Court Advantage Is Not That Hot
Many so-called seasoned bettors always tell you to bet on the home-court NBA team. While there is a certain element of wisdom to it. It’s not the wisest move, especially if you want to make money. The crux of the matter is that casual bettors always bet on their home-court team. They’re loyal to a fault. This leads to online sportsbooks to shade the lines toward home teams which inflates the odds.
In the NBA, three points is the home-court advantage. Depending on which arena hosts the NBA, it can go up to 4 points. The NBA is unique it offers plenty of back-to-back seasons where teams can play as much as two games per night. The schedule can be so hectic that it increases stress and injuries. As a result, they can nullify home-court advantage.
If the home team played two consecutive games the previous night. Any sensible live bettor will bet on the road team, not so? NBA home teams win 59.4 percent of their home games. Initially, it looks good but it’s not that hot. Winning the game is not that important, but what matters is that the NBA home team covers the spread. The downside here is that although the home team wins most of their games, they don’t always cover. Bankroll management is also important when you bet on the NBA.
Why The Spread In NBA Matters
History points out that roughly 49.1 percent of the NBA home teams go against the spread. We put this down to their losing record and the juice they must pay. If you bet $100 religiously on the NBA home team since 2005. You would have lost more than $70,000.
There is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. Just as home teams are overvalued, road teams are undervalued. As of 2005, road teams only won 40 percent of their games, but they covered 50.9 percent of them. Just because they covered the spread it doesn’t mean you should bet on them. Road teams lose around -65.67 units because bettors must pay the juice. Even though it looks rather shoddy, bettors will lose more money if they bet on the home team.
Bet On NBA Underdogs
Online sportsbooks shade their lines to exploit public bias.Hence the reason we recommend that you bet against the public. That said, don’t just bet on any NBA team – do your homework first. Know which team to pick and when to place your bets. The public can’t resist it to bet on home teams and favorites. Which makes the road underdogs the most likely team to win.
Furthermore, home teams that get 40 percent or less of the bets, improve around 2,180-2000 against the spread. They win roughly 70 units, which indicates again why home teams are overvalued and road teams undervalued. Note, not all spreads are the same in the NBA because small road underdog must provide value.
The best time to bet on the NBA underdogs is when the season just started because they are more competitive. Key players don’t have any serious injuries and they’re still eager to play. Teams tend to tank and lose interest especially if they don’t make the playoff. Our top NBA online sportsbooks accept Bitcoin and once you sign up, you receive a bonus.
Buy Low Off A Loss
You can make a quick buck or three if you bet low on an NBA team that just comes off a loss. It’s easier to capitalize on the public’s opinion about the NBA team because it will be low. The bottom line is, when a team lost their previous game, the public will bet against them. Always bet on the road underdogs especially if they came off a blowout loss. Next, buy low on teams who lost badly in their previous game because contrarian bettors undervalue them.
How To Exploit Inflated Lines NBA Betting
In the NBA the threshold for betting against the public is 30 percent. it sure is profitable, but the key aspect is to look for inflated lines. What is an inflated line? It’s when the majority of the public bets on a specific NBA team. The online sportsbooks will adjust the line in favor of the team that carries the majority bets. Smart bettors know how to exploit this because if the underdog wins, they can win a substantial amount of money.
Let’s put it this way, if the Lakers are 9 point favorites (-9) and they play against the Hawks. The Lakers receive 75 percent of spread bets. The Hawks will now have a +11 instead of a +10. Meaning that the bookmakers will change the Lakers from -9 to -10. As you can see the public’s majority favor just gave you an extra point. Sharps didn’t move the line and neither did smart money. The line moved thanks to the public who overvalue the Lakers.
Just remember, inflated lines work best in the most lopsided of NBA games. If sharp action moves the number we advise you not to bet against it.
Bet On The Total
It’s not just the spread that is popular in the NBA but bettors like to bet on the total as well. The public also bets on overs and not just on the favorites and home teams. The online sportsbooks know this and they’ll shade the totals toward overs. They’ll force public bettors to take the numbers that are overpriced. We don’t have to tell you that overs practically bankrupted many public bettors, and made the sportsbooks tons of money.
When you bet on overs make sure they receive sharp action and they are contrarian. Bet against the public, but make sure you don’t go up against the sharps.
NBA Betting On Divisional Unders
There are 6 divisions in the NBA, and 5 teams in every division.The teams that are in the same division play against each other 4 times per year. Because the teams play so many times against each other they know each other’s strength’s and weaknesses.
To such an extent that they know how to improve their defense which often results in low-scoring games. If you bet against the public divisional unders can work wonders. Reverse line movement cal also occurs during contrarian divisional under which is even better. Consequently, sharps caused the total to fall because they bet on the under.
When the teams are in the same division, it’s better to bet on the under. It’s more advantageous when the under receives sharp action. Former NBA referee Tim Donaghey received a 15-month prison sentence because he gave inside information to the mafia. He would make the wrong calls during the NBA games that benefitted the opposing team and affected the point spread.
Bet Against NBA Teams Who Play Back-To-Back
Always bet against the NBA home team that plays back-to-back games especially if they were on the road. When they play on the second night they’re not near as sharp because fatigue sets in. Also, it favors the road team when they play against them at home.
Teams that usually go against the spread lose nearly 50 percent of their NBA games. We don’t have to tell you that you must exploit it, and we’re not even going to mention the public’s bias. Another important thing, make sure the NBA teams are in the same conference. The key takeaway here is that on the second night the home team is overvalued.
NBA Playoffs How To Bet
When it comes to betting on the playoffs it’s a different story altogether. The home team has a home-court advantage; the crowds make more noise and the stakes are higher. Moreover, it’s high stakes all the way! During the playoffs, the road team finds itself in a hostile environment.