Betting on baseball is usually where all the sharps hang out because it entails big money. The reason why baseball betting at online sportsbooks is such a profitable endeavor. It focuses mainly on the moneyline. Whereas basketball and football focus on the point spread. This article tells you “How To Bet On Baseball“.
Why Baseball Betting?
Why is it more advantageous for bettors to bet on baseball as opposed to the other sports? Baseball is not concerned with which team will cover the spread but only with the winning team. The baseball season is the longest since it covers more than 2,400 games.
Therefore, the opportunity baseball betting offers is almost limitless. Baseball is the perfect sports where savvy bettors can formulate their own sports betting strategy.
One of the main reasons why we’re successful at baseball betting we focus more on the divisional underdogs. They offer plenty of plus money-payouts at sub-50 percent. As far as the reverse line movement goes, baseball betting online at sportsbooks is tops too. There is more though. To be successful at betting on baseball; you must bet against the public, bet on totals, on variables such as the umpires and the weather.
Listed Pitcher vs Action
Before we get down to the meat and potatoes on how to bet on baseball. There is one very important thing about it you must understand. The quarterback is the most important player in the NFL. Not so? Simply because the quarterback has a significant impact on the lines, as well as your bets. But, we’re not here to discuss the quarterback.
Point is just like the quarterback, the pitcher is the most important player in the baseball team. Baseball teams scratch their starting pitchers because of an injury. Scratched means the initial pitcher won’t start the game due to unforeseen circumstances.
Since the pitcher no longer pitches, they must replace him with a less-popular pitcher. Now that the original pitcher is no longer in the loop. It drastically opens the line at a different number. Online sportsbooks, and sharps scuttle to readjust their bets. Moreover, sportsbooks take the odds ‘Off The Board’ (OTB). As a result, bettors can no longer place their bets.
Baseball Betting Replacement Pitcher
Once they announce the new pitcher. The online betting sites reopen the line at a different number that reflects the new starting pitcher. When this happens, bettors have two options available to them. They can bet on the “listed pitcher”, or on the “action”.
If you bet on “listed pitcher” the starting pitchers must start the game for your bet to count. If you bet on the “action”, the sportsbooks will lock your bets irrespective of what happens to the pitchers. Should the starting pitchers change; all bets are off and the sportsbook will return your money.
If you bet on Clayton Kershaw, and the Dodgers as the -140 favorites against the Cardinals at +130. As bad luck would have it, 45 minutes before the game starts. They scratch Kershaw with a late injury. Furthermore, they replace him with a shoddy pitcher. The sportsbooks immediately takes the game off the board. They’ll reopen the line where the Dodgers will be +110 and the Cardinals at -110.
The good news is that not all scratched pitchers have a negative affect on your bets. Note, baseball bets usually default to “action”. Certain sportsbooks make provision for a listed pitcher. The last thing you want to see is a pitching change. Especially if you’ve put in all the hard yards, and where possible avoid all action bets.
Avoid The Favorites When You Bet On Baseball
Sportsbooks shade their lines because they know casual bettors love to bet on the favorite team. If you back the favorite team, you’re playing right into the hands of the sportsbook. We don’t have to tell you because of overpriced values, and overpriced odds. Sometimes it’s just not worth it to bet on the big favorites because it’s expensive.
Yes, we do agree that the heavy favorites will win the majority of their games. Yet, they don’t offer bettors real value for money. And, let’s not forget the public bets heavily on them. If you risk a few dollars on the favorite and it wins. You’ll make a dime or two.
It’s a different story when you back the underdog and it wins. Because you’ll win a wad of cash. Even though the favorite team wins often, you’re not winning any real money. What we’re saying here is when you back the favorite; the juice is not always worth the squeeze.
Divisional Underdogs Are Worth It
To make a profit from betting on basketball and football you must win at least 52.38 percent of your bets. The opposite rings true for baseball. Smart baseball bettors can turn a profit at less than 50 percent. How do you that do that? Put simply, they must avoid big moneyline favorites, and go for valuable plus-money underdogs.
This is one of the main advantages why sharp bettors dig betting on baseball. If you back the underdog and it loses, you lose chum change. However, if they win, you’re in the pound seats. If you really want to win big we recommend that you bet on the divisional underdogs. Divisional teams play a lot against each other. So much so, they know each others’ strengths and weaknesses after a while.
Road Underdogs High Totals
When we factor in two more filters it’s even more advantageous to you to bet on divisional underdogs. Like the majority of the sports, public bettors bet heavily on home-field advantage. Therefore, it’s wise to bet on the road team, or in this case the underdog.
If we through in the high totals, road divisional underdogs look even better on paper. When it comes to the underdog, the game must have a high total; high totals are good for the underdog. The more runs the teams score in a game the wackier it becomes. We can define a high total as an over/under of 8.5 or more.
Bet Against The Public
Remember, teams that receive less than 20 percent of the moneyline bets are the best to bet on. The best time to bet against the public is during Sunday Night Baseball.
It offers great contrarian value because the public usually bets heavily on it. You can also shift your attention to underdogs that come off a recent win. The public is of the opinion they’re one-trick ponies. You can exploit this bias if you bet smart.
Reverse Line Movement
If you want to make money betting on baseball, align yourself with the sharps, or professional bettors. The reverse line movement indicates that the sharps are up to something. Bet on teams that receive less than 35 percent of the bets.
When you see the line move sharply never bet against it because you’ll lose. The bigger the line movement the more profitable it is to bet on it. It signals that the smart and big money is on the move. When you bet against the public always look for sharp action in reverse line movement.
Bet On Bad Baseball Teams
It so happens that when a bad team scores a win the public reckons it got lucky. So much so that they write them off without blinking an eye. Because they believe they will lose their next game. A bad team in baseball wins less than 40 percent of its games.
However, if a bad team comes off a great win it can change the team’s performance by a substantial margin. Let’s just say the team goes square to hip. It’s just what the doctor ordered, and a win can work miracles for the team’s confidence and overall performance. It also gives them a lot of momentum going into their next game.
American League Teams Interplay League
There are two leagues in baseball: the American and the National League; each league has 15 teams. For many years, teams in different leagues played each other in the World Series.
All that changed in 1997 because the MLB created the interleague play. Teams would play against each other on weekends for a year. Therefore, the league is much bigger than it was. As a result, it creates more betting opportunities that savvy bettors can exploit.
Check The Weather
Each stadium across America has its own unique wind patterns. When it comes to betting on windy unders the best stadium is Wrigley Field. The home of the Chicago Cubs.
Why Windy Unders Are Important
No matter from which direction the wind blows in, the Cubs win more than 63 percent of their games. Consequently, always bet on the windy under at Wrigley Field. No wonder they call Chicago the windy city. Never bet on an over or under if you don’t know which direction the wind is blowing in.
For instance, it benefits unders when the wind blows in. When a batter hits a home run with the wind, the ball normally lands in the first row seats. When the wind blows towards the home plate, batters knock the ball down. Playing against the wind leads to low scoring games with few home runs. When the wind blows in always bet on the under. In terms of baseball totals, it’s one of the best betting strategies.
The opposite occurs when the wind is blowing out, we advise you to bet on the over. However, try and avoid overs as far as possible because they don’t offer any value.
Inside or Outside?
When it comes to baseball stadiums. Keep an eye on Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, Safeco Field in Seattle, , and Marlins Park in Miami. When playing baseball in a closed dome the conditions are perfect for the pitcher. Because there is no wind the ball won’t go far which makes it perfect for unders.
What About The Umpires?
Casual baseball bettors often make the mistake when they don’t consider the home plate umpire. Umpires make mistakes that you can exploit if you’re smart. It so happens that the pressure of a home crowd can cause the umpire to cave in. For some umpires, it’s game on and they don’t let the crowd get to them.
Umpires can give the underdogs extra breaks. While some umpires will have a tight strike zone which can lead to more walks and strikeouts. The net result is umpires can strengthen or weaken a potential play during a baseball game. You can combine the umpire with the wind direction and home-field bias. You can play it many ways. Umpires won’t make or break your pick but they can have an impact on it.
The long and strenuous baseball season offers superb value to high-volume bettors. The only downside to betting on baseball is that there are massive swings. Bettors can hit a month-long hot streak and plunge straight into a cold spell. We advise you to be patient and think long term. When you’re up don’t get cocky, and never double down. Check the weather, the public bias, and the team’s home and away record before you bet.