The legalization of online sports betting in the US has brought many new opportunities.
More and more live sports bettors are now turning to advice. Who should you listen to if you want to have an edge?
Which social media accounts are worth following? Moreover, are there any handicappers that you can make a profit with?
Those are all legitimate questions and there’s a lot to unpack here. That’s because there’s now a lot of data and information available.
It’s hard to see who to trust and which tipster picks you should follow. Or tail, as they call it sometimes.
If you place the odd bet at the best online sportsbooks, things have never been more complicated than now.
Bankroll Management Is Key
All sports bettors that want to be successful must manage their bankrolls properly. In other words, they need to know how much money they can bet with.
Also, they need to know how much they can afford to bet per wager. The usual consensus is that you should bet between 1% and 5% of your bankroll on a bet.
Let’s say, handicappers, recommend you increase your live bets. What must you do? We recommend you drop all bets and look elsewhere.
Such handicappers are scams and they will eventually empty your wallet.
Sometimes, they even charge big fees for their tips. Then, they recommend you place a lot of money on their top daily tips.
Doing so is a sure-fire way to lose money quickly. You won’t have any margin for error and it will turn into a crapshoot.
Instead, you need to think in the long term. Bets are like investments for professional sports bettors. This means you want to diversify and give yourself the best possible chance in the long term.
If you want to use the services of a handicapper. You need to check his or her record first. You wouldn’t want to follow someone without a verified record.
In other words, someone you cannot trust to be transparent. You want to know the win-loss record and also the total number of units won or lost.
With various tools, it’s easy to change one’s record. That’s to deceive sports bettors to think the handicapper is much better than suggested. You can see many unrealistic records online.
Nobody can win, say, 85% of all their placed bets. However, it is possible to reach 55% or higher. That’s a great record! In fact, that’s realistic in the long term as well.
Sites like Betstamp allow handicappers to lock and track predictions.
They can then publish their records wherever they want. However, they cannot manipulate them anyway. Therefore, it’s good for credibility.
A negative W-L record can still net a profit. Some handicappers like going for underdogs, so they’ll have negative records.
If they pick +EV bets, though, they might still have a positive net return.
Stats and Trends
It’s always a good idea to check how tipsters and handicappers think. Many put all sorts of data and stats to their shared analysis.
The problem is that some bettors follow the trends blindly. That’s not a good thing to do. Especially if there aren’t any records available.
For example, what good it if a team has an 8-2 record to cover a spread against another? Since NFL teams don’t meet often, that’s a record over several years.
Much has changed between games. Further, the outcome of a past game doesn’t influence the outcome of the next game.
It would be ridiculous to think that team will cover again with an 80% chance!
EV and Closing Lines
One thing that sports bettors can do is see how handicappers fare with lines. When bettors wager on early lines.
They can compare where the lines have moved before the game starts.
If they’ve moved in favor of the handicapper. There’s a good chance that he or she is the real deal. If it’s the other way around, perhaps they’ve missed an important factor.
Nobody can predict the movements correctly. We say so because injuries can occur out of the blue. If the trend is positive. Make sure to keep an eye out for the given handicapper!
Transparency Trumps Everything
The key thing to realize is that the transparency of the handicapper is the most important thing.
It’s always a good sign when handicappers publish their betting strategy or tips well ahead of games.
Having a verifiable record is a must if you want to follow someone. Also, it would be good if industry regulators and sportsbooks step in to limit shady practices.
They should mainly inform sports bettors about the risk that handicappers come with.